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September 17, 2004

How Democrats Can and Will Win in November

Before I get started, take a look at the following electoral vote prediction map from the Kerry supporting site: electoral-vote.com. Pay close attention to Ohio, to the "Barely Bush" electoral vote count, to Bush's total (down from 311 yesterday), and also take note that 270 electoral votes is a win. The map will not fit conveniently within a blog entry, so you'll have to click and use your back-button (or hold down your shift-key before clicking):

September 17th's prediction from electoral-vote.com.

As you can see, Bush has 307 electoral votes coming his way according to current polls, Ohio is dead even with 20 electoral votes, and the "Barely Bush" electoral vote count is 74 votes. Also, the Republican National Convention has been over for more than two weeks, the "convention bounce" phase is over, and there's only just over six weeks left - a month and a half - before we vote on November 2nd.

After the Democratic National Convention, John Kerry suffered the first negative bounce in convention history, according to some polls. At best, he had 2 points, but that's a stretch, and it evaporated quickly. The Democrat's rationale was that we're a very divided country and that there were few people left to convince...Bush wouldn't get a bounce, either.

But they were wrong. Following the Republican National Convention, Bush's numbers went up...then up...then up...then they fell down and finally leveled off with Bush way, way ahead. Bush convinced a lot of people. And the Democrats see the writing on the wall:

John Kerry is not going to win this election.

Now here's why I asked you to pay special attention to a few things: Ohio is a major battleground state with it's 20 electoral votes, and Bush could win it as easily as Kerry. But, just suppose that Kerry were to win it; would he win the election then, based upon everything else on the map? No, George Bush is still way ahead. In fact, if George Bush were to not only lose Ohio, and he were to lose fully half of the "Barely Bush" electoral votes (37 of them) to Kerry, AND he were not able to convert a single Kerry state from the current polls to himself, Bush would still win. THAT is how significant is Bush's lead. He could lose all of the "Barely Kerry" states, he could lose Ohio (20), New Jersey (15), Colorado (11), Iowa (6), and Arkansas (5), and he'd still win the election. That's BIG. And who believes that, in these strongly contested states, he's going to lose all of that, and that he's not going to gain any of the "Barely Kerry"s?

The title of this blog entry isn't a mistake, however, because the Democrats are going to win this November. No, their candidate isn't going to win the election, but the Democrats are still going to score a win.

First note that even the Democrats tend to despise John Kerry. They were given a Democratic primary in which the ultra-leftist, "Bush=Hitler", Deaniac, very loud small subset of the Democrats set the agenda for the Democratic party. The result was one of the lowest voter turnouts in Democratic party history; few people who would ordinarily be interested in voting wanted to show up to vote for any of those guys. In fact, according to recent polls, 12% of Democrats are going to bother to get themselves down to the polls just so that they can help to ensure a victory for George Bush by voting for him. That whole platform that the Democrats have been running on, if you can even call it that, is something that they just don't like, and Democratic voters - who are primarily Clinton Democrats - aren't going for any of it, but most of them would still rather see Kerry in the White House than Bush.

So what of the Democrats, those who would very much prefer for John Kerry to win the White House over Bush? What are they to do? These are the Democrats who are now seeing the writing on the wall. They don't particularly care for Kerry, they just think that he's the lesser of two evils. And they know that he's not going to win. Well, I'll tell you what they're going to do, barring anything really dramatic that happens between now and election day: They're going to vote for Ralph Nader.

These Democrats will know that they're not "throwing away their vote", because Kerry hasn't a prayer of winning in the first place whether they vote for him or not. But by voting for Nader, they don't have to vote for either of the two big evils: Bush or Kerry. Instead, they get a unifying rallying cry to trumpet for the next four years: "Bush didn't win because the people wanted him! Bush won because Nader split the vote!!!" And the more votes Nader gets, the more potent will be their cry.

THAT is their win. You watch.

Posted by Jeff at September 17, 2004 07:13 PM

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